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South Africa’s radical Economic Freedom Fighters party, led by firebrand Julius Malema, was at risk of “imploding”, according to analysts, after months of tensions within its senior ranks broke to the surface with the defection of its powerful deputy leader.
Malema’s party built a significant following among disenfranchised South Africans over more than a decade with its platform that demanded land redistribution and the nationalisation of critical parts of the economy.
But it performed poorly in May’s general election, winning just 9.5 per cent of the vote to be overtaken by the upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party led by former South African president Jacob Zuma.
The two parties that won the most votes, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress and the centrist Democratic Alliance, later formed a unity government with eight others, with the EFF and MK parties excluded.
Weeks of recriminations came to a head last week when Floyd Shivambu, Malema’s lieutenant who co-formed the party with him in 2013, said he was resigning to join Zuma’s MK party. Mzwanele Manyi, another leading EFF figure who held critical roles in parliament, did likewise, with analysts expecting others to follow.
Shivambu in his resignation letter described his exit as “a revolutionary act that will allow progressive forces to unite”.
Malema, who initially appeared to accept Shivambu’s resignation, then went on the offensive, lashing out at “silent enemies” within the EFF and telling those uncertain of their loyalty to “leave now”.
Addressing EFF members in Soweto this week, Malema spoke of “those who betrayed me” and used him for self-enrichment.
Analysts said the defections were likely influenced by Malema’s increasingly authoritarian approach — he axed 200 party members a year ago for failing to organise transport for the party’s 10th birthday — as well as his unwillingness to relinquish his hold on the party’s presidency.
They also pointed to a criminal investigation into R2bn ($122mn) that was stolen from VBS Mutual Bank, with both Shivambu and Malema implicated by the bank’s former chair, who took a plea bargain last month in which he detailed how he made payments to both of them.
“At this point, it’s hard not to see the EFF imploding,” said Ralph Mathekga, an independent political analyst. “It was a party formed around Malema, who is now melting down, so I expect the EFF to get obliterated in the 2026 local government elections. In the longer term, the EFF’s disintegration is likely to lead to a realignment of South African politics.”
Mathekga said Malema’s unwillingness to institutionalise the party, and set out an orderly succession plan through which people such as Shivambu could ascend to a higher position, was now his big weakness. “It sends a strong message to other EFF members that if Floyd, who founded the party, couldn’t become its leader, what hope do others have,” he said.
The defections have also punctured the narrative that Malema is a shrewd political tactician — a view that had already taken a knock when his bargaining with Ramaphosa for positions in the unity government went nowhere.
While some reports said Malema demanded the country’s deputy presidency as a condition for bringing the EFF into the unity government, he told the Soweto meeting he “never asked for any position”. Negotiators also felt Malema’s demands for the DA to be excluded from the unity government overplayed his hand, according to senior ANC figures.
While Malema’s loss would appear to be Zuma’s gain, Mathekga said this was not necessarily so.
“If anything, these moves highlight how weak South Africa’s leftist parties are. We’ve seen the MK party looking just as chaotic, so it doesn’t look like Zuma’s meteoric rise in the last election can be sustained over the longer-term,” he said.
MK this month fired 18 of its own MPs, who had only been sworn in weeks before, prompting accusations by some of them that the party was seeking to install “friends” of powerful figures in the party, notably Zuma’s daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla.
Mbhazima Shiłowa, a former ANC leader who has since left politics, said Shivambu’s defection suggested a hostile takeover of the EFF by Zuma’s party. But he also said it was unclear yet if this would be a fatal blow for the EFF. “Contrary to the assertion that this will strengthen the relationship between the MK party and the EFF, it may have the opposite effect,” he said.
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